Abstract: The study estimated the self-sufficiency on production and consumption of selected grain crops in Nigeria. Data was collected from United States Department of Agriculture and analyzed using descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Squares. The result indicates that the peak growth rate for consumption and production for rice occurred in 1970s (17.70%) and 1980’s (13.31%), for maize it was 6.50% and 6.40% in 2000-2009, for wheat it was 18.65% and 21.65% in the 1970’s and sorghum was 8.44% and 7.14% in 1990’s while the least occurred in 1990s (0.01%) and 1.71% for rice, 2.47% and 2.27% for maize in 1980’s, 17.88% (80) and 8.70% (2010-2025) for wheat and 0.90% (2000-2009) and 1.19% (1980s) for sorghum. Result of analysis showed that wheat recorded the highest deficit of -106634 metric tonnes followed by rice (-80209 metric tonnes), maize (-11966metric tonnes) and sorghum (-4526metric tonnes). Sorghum experienced a surplus in 1990s and the highest deficit was experienced in 2010-2019 for all the grains. Also, the self-sufficiency rate declined from 1970s to 2010-2025. It declined from 63.49% to 51%, 96.86% to 94.52%, 1.80% to 1.76% and 99.43% to 97.19% for rice, maize, wheat and sorghum respectively, indicating that Nigeria is not self-sufficient in grain crop production. However, Nigeria was self-sufficient in sorghum production in the 1990s. findings also showed that the long run self-sufficiency rate for rice, maize, wheat and sorghum is 52.92%, 95.40%, 2.28% and 98.43% from 1970 -2025. The balance of 47.08%, 4.6%, 97.72% and 1.57% for rice, maize, wheat and sorghum was met through import. The study recommended that more attention should be placed on production, the rising population and how to counter the excessive import by providing subsidies and inputs to farmers.
Keywords: self-sufficiency, consumption, production, consumption, grains
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