Abstract
The study evaluates the performance and determinants of cocoa export and import in Nigeria (1970-2025). Simultaneous models were developed to capture the joint effects of export and import of the crop. Two Stages Least Square (2SLS) approach was used to estimate the determinants of cocoa export and imports in Nigeria. The study revealed that quantity of cocoa output, producer’s price of cocoa; world price and nominal exchange rate were the significant determinants of cocoa export. The quantity of cocoa consumed, agricultural gross domestic product and rainfall were positive determinants of cocoa import while producer’s price of cocoa and import value negatively influenced import. The performance evaluation estimate showed that the total quantity of cocoa exported (48,934,000 tons) was higher than the quantity imported (5,735500 tons) over the study period. The balance of trade value was 48,360,450. meaning a positive balance of trade within the study period. The study concludes that government should encourage the export and import promotion strategies so as to realize a surplus balance of trade. The study recommended the following: government should encourage the export and import promotion strategies so as to realize a surplus balance of trade. Also, adequate security, effective fiscal and monetary policy and infrastructural facilities should be put in place so that foreign investors will be attracted to invest in cocoa subsector of the economy, policies that enhances sustained performance of cocoa industries in terms of export and import for future growth self-sustainability should be adopted, adoption of exchange rate stabilization policies is strongly advocated and government intervention in form of subsidies, targeting export promotion programmes,
Key words: Cocoa, export, import, performance, evaluation and determinants.
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